Frank Hoogerbeets, a Dutch autodidact seismologist, asserts his ability to forecast seismic activities throufgh the alignment of celestial bodies and manipulation of magnetic fields. His notoriety stems from purportedly predicting the 2020 earthquake in Turkey.
Nevertheless, the scientific community refuses to accord credibility to Hoogerbeets’ methodologies as a dependable means of earthquake prediction. Presently, there exists no empirical substantiation supporting the notion that planetary alignments or magnetic fields can reliably predict seismic events. The modus operandi accepted and endorsed by the scientific fraternity for earthquake prediction relies on the vigilant monitoring of seismic occurrences, alterations in the Earth’s surface, and other geological metrics.
The mechanism by which Frank Hoogerbeets foresaw the Turkey earthquake three days in advance remains ambiguous. His methodologies lack independent verification and peer review, prompting numerous experts to dismiss his assertions as devoid of scientific backing.
A substantial portion of the populace, including many scholars, fails to apprehend the enigma of rare events. Notably, conspiracy theorists frequently succumb to this logical quagmire.
Allow me to explicate this conundrum in simplistic terms.
Envision the multitude of prognosticators making predictions about diverse phenomena on Earth daily. How vast is their number over a year? Are they in the millions or billions?
Consider each forecaster as a grain in a receptacle. Collectively, they fill the receptacle.
Now contemplate “the hand of Providence.” This metaphoric hand selects a solitary, RANDOM grain, and whatever foresight was ascribed to that grain materializes.
What is the likelihood of a particular grain being chosen? Infinitesimal.
However, what is the likelihood of any grain being chosen, irrespective of its identity? 100%.
Consider another illustration. You learn that a relative has contracted an exceedingly rare form of cancer, afflicting one in a million individuals. You ponder, how did this unfortunate occurrence transpire? Yet, how many distinct rare cancers exist? Perhaps 10,000. Consequently, the probability of contracting ANY rare cancer is 10,000 divided by 1,000,000, equating to one in a hundred. Suddenly, the odds do not seem so negligible.
I encountered no corroborative evidence supporting Frank Hoogerbeets’ specific prediction of the Turkey earthquake three days prior to its occurrence. Prevailing sentiment within the scientific enclave posits that precise forecasting of earthquakes, encompassing date, time, and location, remains presently unattainable. Current technological and scientific capabilities extend only to furnishing a broad comprehension of the probability of seismic events transpiring in particular locales, contingent upon factors like geological history, tectonic dynamics, and seismic patterns.